Guernsey Weather Fox

Barely a wisp of cloud or a breath of wind, making all coasts equally gorgeous and warm… max temp 22-23°C. Watch out for sunburn though… although we are quite a long way past the solstice now, the UV index is still hitting 7 around lunchtime on clear-sky days like this.

Super-clean 2-3 foot surf, especially 2-3 hours either side of the lunchtime high tide (7.9m at 12:30pm). Swimming, paddle-boarding and kayaking will be greatly enhanced on all coasts, due to the lack of wind. Low tide will be at 6:50pm.

Similarly sunny to Sunday, but with a light force 2-3 E’ly breeze bringing warm air from the continent through the morning. This breeze will veer NE’ly in the afternoon, which will blend in some coolness from the sea and therefore flatten out the temperature rise to some extent, but an impressive max of 26-27°C is still expected. Then it will be sheets rather than duvets for the night time, because it’s going to be rather sticky and uncomfortable, with a minimum temperature of about 18°C.

The surf will be 2 feet and super-clean in the morning, slightly smaller and choppier in the afternoon. The west coast will be best for swimming in the morning, but the other coasts should be pretty smooth as well. Moving towards late afternoon and evening, the south coast will really be the loveliest. Low tides will be at 7:20am and 7:50pm. High tide will be at 1:30pm (7.5m).

This has long been expected to be a very warm day, but likely compromised by the onset of thundery showers. Obviously the sooner the onset, the lower the likely max, so it has been of great interest to forecasters like me, to see how the computer models have developed the forecast story from one update to the next. The latest expectation is looking like great news for lovers of heat. The early morning will be warmer than the previous, due to Monday night having been so warm. The afternoon and the evening, will hold a steady temperature of 25-26°C under slightly cloudier skies and a light force 3 NE’ly breeze. Then the threat of that cloud developing into heavy and thundery showers is not expected until after dusk. However, even then, the threat is looking much greater for Normandy and perhaps Jersey, so the most likely scenario will be a dry night with a distant lightshow to enjoy around midnight.

The surf will be 1-2 feet and it might be quite clean at times, because there is a chance that our wind will occasionally fall into the doldrums, whilst the thunderstorms develop over mainland France. Swimming conditions will mostly be best on the south coast, but the other coasts will be equally lovely if we luck into that doldrums scenario. Low tides will be at 8:30am and 9:15pm. High tide will be at 2:45pm (7.2m).

Wednesday now promises to be about as hot as Tuesday (25-26°C), due to skies being super sunny and the N’ly breeze only being light force 1-2. Thursday and Friday will have slightly cloudier skies though (still plenty of sunny moments) and the wind will change to a force 3-4 NW’ly through Thursday and then SW’ly through Friday… all introducing Atlantic air and therefore the more normal temperatures that come with it. The most likely maxima for Thursday and Friday will be 23°C and 22°C respectively (and the nights should be much more comfortable as well, with 14°C being the most likely minima.

The surf will most likely be close to flat through Wednesday and much of Thursday, then increase to about 3 or maybe 4 feet by the end of Friday. Any waves that might sneak under the radar on Wednesday would be lovely and clean, Thursday probably quite choppy, but Friday reasonably clean again. Low tides will shift day by day from late morning to lunchtime. High tides will shift day by day from late afternoon to dinnertime.